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S4-hardening · normalized model

Electricity profit pools: normalization, migration, verification

74 rows → a single metric (annual profit pool, nominal $M + CPI→2020), linked to graph nodes, with independent verification of the figures.

42 normalized cells96 graph nodes tagged by margin5 facts verified
Headline

Migration of the annual profit pool across periods (nominal $M)

high marginmediumlow (commodity)
$0M$100M$200M$300M$400Mcopper(elec) P2: $3M (lo, conf L)equipment_mfg P2: $2M (mid, conf L)utility/generation P2: $0.5M (lo, conf L)P2 ~1888Σ≈$5.5Mequipment_mfg P3: $12M (mid, conf M)lamps P3: $8M (hi, conf M)copper(elec) P3: $8M (lo, conf M)real_estate(uplift) P3: $5M (hi, conf L)coal P3: $5M (lo, conf L)utility/generation P3: $3M (lo, conf M)finance/holding P3: $3M (hi, conf L)aluminum/electrochem P3: $2M (hi, conf L)appliances P3: $1M (mid, conf L)transport P3: $1M (lo, conf M)hydro P3: $1M (mid, conf L)P3 ~1902Σ≈$49Mfinance/holding P4: $80M (hi, conf M)finance/holdin $80equipment_mfg P4: $60M (mid, conf H)equipment_mfg $60real_estate(uplift) P4: $60M (hi, conf L)real_estate(up $60utility/generation P4: $45M (mid, conf M)utility/genera $45copper(elec) P4: $40M (lo, conf M)copper(elec) $40appliances P4: $25M (mid, conf M)appliances $25aluminum/electrochem P4: $20M (hi, conf M)aluminum/elect $20lamps P4: $15M (hi, conf H)coal P4: $15M (lo, conf M)hydro P4: $10M (mid, conf L)refrigeration/cold P4: $8M (mid, conf L)patents_royalty P4: $7M (hi, conf M)broadcasting_ads P4: $5M (hi, conf M)P4 ~1925Σ≈$390Mutility/generation P5: $120M (mid, conf M)utility/genera $120equipment_mfg P5: $70M (mid, conf M)equipment_mfg $70aluminum/electrochem P5: $60M (hi, conf M)aluminum/elect $60real_estate(uplift) P5: $50M (hi, conf L)real_estate(up $50appliances P5: $40M (mid, conf M)appliances $40refrigeration/cold P5: $35M (mid, conf M)refrigeration/ $35copper(elec) P5: $30M (lo, conf M)copper(elec) $30broadcasting_ads P5: $30M (hi, conf M)broadcasting_a $30lamps P5: $20M (hi, conf H)lamps $20hydro P5: $20M (mid, conf L)hydro $20patents_royalty P5: $10M (hi, conf M)coal P5: $10M (lo, conf M)P5 ~1940Σ≈$495M
The profit pool grew ≈ $5M→$49M→$390M→$495M (P2→P5, nominal; ×CPI ≈ $0.2→1.4→5.5→6.4 billion in $2020). Color = margin: the mass of profit clearly shifts toward high-margin nodes (patent-protected lamps, aluminum, patents/advertising, real estate, financial capital), while commodities (copper/coal, in gray) grow by volume but stay thin on margin. P5: Insull's financial collapse of −$750M is one-off and shown separately (not in the stack).
Self-check (what had been missing)

Verification log — 5 load-bearing figures

FactWhat I hadIndependent verificationOutcome
GE share of the lamp market, 1921was 71.9%69% of $68.3M (US v. GE 1926); ~85% including licenseescorrected
Collapse in the price of aluminumwas ×200$4.86/lb (1888) → ~25¢ (1900s) ≈ ×20 (Hall); ~×48 from the pre-Hall $12corrected
Coal's share of generationwas 56%~50% from 1920, sustained for decadesrefined
Insull collapse~$750–800M / ~600kconfirmed: >500k investors, ~$750–800M, a $4 billion empireconfirmed
GE revenue/margin 1929 (~$390M/~16%)secondary sourceNOT independently confirmed (no public 1929 series)flagged as unverified

3 corrections made, 1 confirmed, 1 flagged as unverified. Sources: US v. GE (Justia), History of aluminium (Wikipedia/ACS), Coal power US (Wikipedia/VisualizingEnergy), Insull collapse (chicagology/EBSCO).

Data discipline

Normalized model (42 cells)

Metric: annual profit ≈ revenue × margin in a representative year of the period; where no margin is available, a tier estimate by node type; confidence H/M/L. This is an order-of-magnitude estimation model, not accounting.

SegmentPeriod$M nominal$M (2020)tierconf
copper(elec)P2 ~1888$3M$87MloL
equipment_mfgP2 ~1888$2M$58MmidL
utility/generationP2 ~1888$0.5M$14MloL
equipment_mfgP3 ~1902$12M$336MmidM
lampsP3 ~1902$8M$224MhiM
copper(elec)P3 ~1902$8M$224MloM
real_estate(uplift)P3 ~1902$5M$140MhiL
coalP3 ~1902$5M$140MloL
utility/generationP3 ~1902$3M$84MloM
finance/holdingP3 ~1902$3M$84MhiL
aluminum/electrochemP3 ~1902$2M$56MhiL
appliancesP3 ~1902$1M$28MmidL
transportP3 ~1902$1M$28MloM
hydroP3 ~1902$1M$28MmidL
finance/holdingP4 ~1925$80M$1120MhiM
equipment_mfgP4 ~1925$60M$840MmidH
real_estate(uplift)P4 ~1925$60M$840MhiL
utility/generationP4 ~1925$45M$630MmidM
copper(elec)P4 ~1925$40M$560MloM
appliancesP4 ~1925$25M$350MmidM
aluminum/electrochemP4 ~1925$20M$280MhiM
lampsP4 ~1925$15M$210MhiH
coalP4 ~1925$15M$210MloM
hydroP4 ~1925$10M$140MmidL
refrigeration/coldP4 ~1925$8M$112MmidL
patents_royaltyP4 ~1925$7M$98MhiM
broadcasting_adsP4 ~1925$5M$70MhiM
transportP4 ~1925$-5M$-70MnegM
utility/generationP5 ~1940$120M$1560MmidM
equipment_mfgP5 ~1940$70M$910MmidM
aluminum/electrochemP5 ~1940$60M$780MhiM
real_estate(uplift)P5 ~1940$50M$650MhiL
appliancesP5 ~1940$40M$520MmidM
refrigeration/coldP5 ~1940$35M$455MmidM
copper(elec)P5 ~1940$30M$390MloM
broadcasting_adsP5 ~1940$30M$390MhiM
lampsP5 ~1940$20M$260MhiH
hydroP5 ~1940$20M$260MmidL
patents_royaltyP5 ~1940$10M$130MhiM
coalP5 ~1940$10M$130MloM
transportP5 ~1940$-10M$-130MnegM
finance/holdingP5 ~1940$-750M$-9750MnegH
S3↔S4 linkage

Linking to the graph

96 of 298 graph nodes are tagged with margin_tier (47 hi · 24 mid · 17 lo · 6 neg · 2 labor) — recorded in graph/graph-data-v3.json. The S3 hubs can now be colored by margin: GE/lamps/aluminum/patents — hi; copper/coal/utility throughput — lo/mid; the streetcar — neg. This confirms: centrality ≠ margin.

Honest disclosure. Profit pools are order-of-magnitude estimates (revenue×margin), nominal in the anchor year of each period plus a rough CPI→2020 adjustment; segments are not strictly additive (different bases). Low confidence (L) applies to real estate / aluminum in early periods / hydro. The financial −$750M (P5) is a one-off loss, outside the annual stack. The goal is the shape of margin migration, not precise sums. The row source is profit-pools-raw.json; the model is profit-pools-normalized.json.